The Revenge of Geography

In The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate (2013), a book of political theory, Robert D. Kaplan attempts to explain the role physical geography and the borders between nations play in world conflicts.

Kaplan begins by explaining that natural boundaries such as mountain ranges, deserts, and rivers used to function as borders between different groups. These boundaries offer protection by separating smaller or more vulnerable groups from more aggressive ones, but also allow greater differences to grow between these groups. In the modern age, natural boundaries are broken down by increased chances to travel and communicate, which means that their ability to protect certain groups from their neighbors has been reduced.

In addition, Kaplan suggests that people no longer remember that geographical boundaries exist, and by extension, they no longer respect natural differences between groups. He identifies the fall of the Berlin Wall as the catalyst for this. Since the boundary between East and West was torn down, people began to see other boundaries as temporary or artificial as well.



Kaplan then explores the history of studying geography. He uses several case studies, such as the fact that Russia has no easy access to the sea, which it needs in order to maintain trade lines, as the reasoning behind much of the country’s aggression. Large areas of wilderness or open space such as the ones in eastern Germany are also tempting to foreign invaders since they allow them to advance without resistance.

Kaplan describes how geography led to the rise of the world’s major religions. Religions such as Christianity and Islam spread rapidly because they first took root in areas with larger populations. The ideas then spread along trade routes, increasing their spheres of influence between areas that were in contact with one another, but were much slower to cross major geographical boundaries such as mountains or oceans.

Combatants during the World War II era had a much more nuanced understanding than many political scientists today, according to Kaplan. He gives the example of the Soviet Union’s expansion, which was designed to provide a buffer between Moscow and the outside in the case of invasion. Germany also understood the importance of controlling major centers of Europe, since Europe was, at the time, the most powerful area in the world and had the most influence over global politics.



Kaplan discusses the effect the mass move to cities has had on current politics. In Asia specifically, people have increasingly congregated in massive megacities which are overcrowded and often unsanitary. These cities also have serious issues with inequality, and some of them are plagued by safety issues and shortages of goods and services. Growing dissatisfaction and desperation cause these megacities to become geographical hotbeds of radicalism. Radicalism and nationalism also become more attractive to people as they struggle to find meaning in their lives and differentiate themselves from the crowd. In addition, Kaplan predicts that governing will become increasingly difficult as areas grow larger and more populous.

Once he has made his predictions for the future, Kaplan goes on to explain how they will play out in several regions on earth. First, he discusses Europe. Kaplan believes that a united Europe has the potential to be powerful because of its natural resources and access to the sea. However, natural geographical borders have prevented European countries from unifying in the past. He predicts trouble will arise concerning the European Union, since he considers this unifying force to be unnatural in the region.

He then discusses Russia and its repeated attempts throughout history to expand and gain access to a reliable sea route. While Kaplan thinks that this is still a goal for Russia, he does not think the country will have much success building another empire because of the increasing power of China, as well as other nearby countries, such as Kazakhstan, that have become adept at playing Russia and China off each other.



Kaplan moves on to China, which he describes as being geographically blessed by a wealth of natural resources and access to ports. These geographical advantages make China economically powerful, ensuring it does not have to take over more territory in order to be prosperous. Because of this, Kaplan predicts that war with China is only a remote possibility, though China’s influence will continue to grow.

Kaplan talks about India, which is a large and prosperous country like China but divided by many natural geographical borders that keep its population from uniting towards common goals. Because of this, he predicts that India will not fulfill its economic potential in the near future.

Finally, Kaplan discusses America and especially American intervention in foreign states. He believes that costly interventions, especially in the Middle East, are ultimately futile because geography and culture keep them from enacting lasting change. He instead believes that America should focus its attention on Mexico, a deeply unstable state that, due to its proximity to the U.S., has much more potential to threaten it.