The Drunkard's Walk

The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives is a business science book by Leonard Mlodinow. First published in 2008 and nominated for the 2009 Royal Society Science Book Prize, The Drunkard’s Walk discusses how profoundly chance influences our lives, and how we place far too much importance on what are, truly, random happenings. Critics praise the book for offering a new way to look at our world. Mlodinow is a distinguished author and physicist. His father, who spent over a year in the Buchenwald concentration camp, led Jewish resistance against Nazi rule.

Mlodinow’s thesis is that luck dictates whether we succeed or fail in our endeavors. However skilled or incompetent we may be, we can’t control what happens to us. Even the most gifted individuals may never succeed in their chosen field simply because they’re unlucky. Equally, careless, less talented individuals may stumble across an opportunity that brings them success.

Mlodinow encourages us to judge others by their inherent traits and not their successes or failures. For example, we should recognize an artist as talented if we see this talent for ourselves, regardless of whether the artist has awards or sales to validate his or her efforts. We should also recognize others as hardworking, diligent, and ambitious, even if they have failed to secure the job they want. Outward indicators of success do not prove anything about someone—they’re simply the result of luck and good fortune.



Mlodinow’s message is that we must focus on what’s within our control—namely, how hard we work, and how often we seize the opportunities that come our way. So long as we try our best, we cannot do more. The rest is, essentially, up to the universe. Mlodinow discredits the idea that CEOs, star coaches, and other individuals are responsible for the success or failure of their teams and businesses. There is only so much any of us can do.

In the chapter titled “The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths,” Mlodinow explores in more detail why we dislike randomness. He explains that the human brain looks for patterns and reasons in everything. Looking for explanations is a waste of time, because sometimes there are no reasons. For example, scientists may puzzle over anomalies in a test result, but the best way to find an average is by repeating the test over again. As Mlodinow explains, not every anomaly is an error—sometimes, it is simply chance.

Mlodinow acknowledges that the idea of randomness controlling our lives is overwhelming to most people. Ancient civilizations, such as the Greeks and the Romans, also had trouble with chance. However, many ancient people blamed random events on the gods, because it is the only way they could make sense of otherwise inexplicable events. Their worldview influenced how they perceived randomness, and this is true for modern societies, too.



Mlodinow suggests, then, that we are successful when chance falls in our favor. We can improve the likelihood of success through practice and determination. The more often we try something, the more likely it is that we will win the game of chance. For example, the more jobs we apply for, the better chance we have of someone loving our résumé and offering us a job. On the other hand, if we stop trying after a few applications, we are not giving ourselves a fair chance at success.

Mlodinow explains that chance and errors are inextricably linked. There is always a chance that we will misread a situation, a social cue, or a document, and our mistake has significant consequences. Mlodinow uses the example of a Spaniard who won the lottery based on his belief that 7 x 7 = 48. His belief influenced the numbers he selected for his lottery card. He won millions based on a simple mistake. Had he chosen different numbers, he wouldn’t have won the lottery. We can’t control mistakes or twists of fate like this. They simply happen.

In The Drunkard’s Walk, Mlodinow leaves us with a key lesson—stop judging others for making what we deem to be poor decisions. If someone decides to do something based on what has already happened to them, but it doesn’t turn out well, then this doesn’t make them poor decision-makers. They are only doing what we all do—using our own life experiences to estimate what is likely to happen next. We are all guilty of making bad choices, but only because we’re trying to make sense of a chaotic world.



Mlodinow urges us to take comfort from how random life is. Not every opportunity will work out for us, and luck won’t always fall our way. However, the more we try, and the harder we work, the more likely it is that a door will open for us. Mlodinow encourages us to stop taking failure personally, because there are so many factors at play that we will never fully understand. The key to living a happy life is to stop trying to control everything so rigidly.